This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card at Vegas. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to acquire a lot of cash from this week and I can’t wait to chase those huge prizes. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $50k belongs to 1st place with a total of $250k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only tournament for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that match. I won my first chair into it last week and will attempt to get my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those too hard. I’ll probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at that $50k decoration, then I will probably have a couple shots in the Qualifier. I’ll also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good quantity of play into cash games.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Jon Jones — $9,600
Jones is a lock for the cash game lineup this week in his -800 betting line. I will take that free square foot and proceed. He should dominate this battle and he can complete it on the feet or the ground. I expect him to score over 100-points and I am totally fine with paying $9.6k for it. When I’m making lineups, I would like to attempt to have at least 10x from every fighter. Together with Jones being 9.6k, I want at least 96 points . That is how I look at it. If this was a 3-round battle and I did not think Jones could get a finish then maybe he just dents 80-85 DK points in a win, and at $9.6k I wouldn’t want that. However, this is a potential 5-round fight, and that I really do expect Jones to control, so that price tag is fine with me. For GPPs, I believe that you can get from Jon Jones because he’ll be very highly possessed. If he is 50% owned by the area and he only scores 85-90 DK points, then that will pretty much kill off half the field because that would not be sufficient points to place him on that $50k lineup.
GPP drama of the week — Ben Askren — $9,000
If Ben Askren wins this fight it will be from his wrestling. He is among the best wrestlers in MMA history and now he’s finally getting a chance from the UFC after controlling every business he has been in. He will not want to strike for extended against Robbie Lawler, therefore I expect him to take takedowns right away and string wrestle till he gets them. Once he gets high control there is not going to be a lot Robbie can perform on the floor and he should take a beating so long as it is on the mat. On DraftKings, each takedown is 5 points compared to 0.5 points for a substantial strike. A man like Askren can go out there and get 10 takedowns at 15-minutes and that’s what makes him a fantastic play if he can come up with the victory.
Play of the week — Diego Sanchez — $7,100
This really isn’t the Diego Sanchez of older, but I believe he has what it takes to beat Mickey Gall. On the toes, the volume alone from Sanchez should acquire it there so long as he does not get pumped out. The chin of Diego is what I fear about most these days, but Gall isn’t much of a striker and that I don’t see him becoming knockout. In addition, I don’t know that Gall can get takedowns, and I believe Sanchez would be the more likely man to be on top if the struggle hits the floor. A submission is the best chance at a win of Gall and Sanchez has never been submitted. We have to have underdogs within our DK lineups and also at $7.1k Diego enables us to cover up for those guys like Jon Jones or Ben Askren. If he can grind a determination triumph here I presume he can become 10x that salary and when we could find a win against him at the cheap salary, then I think we’ll probably be in line for this $50k win if we hit our additional 5 spots.
Fade of the week — Anthony Smith ($6,600)
I might end up using each fighter because I am making so many lineups this week, however Anthony Smith is the man I need the very least of. I attempt to acquire a favorite for you guys as my fade of this week but I do not think there are any need to fade favorites this week. Rather, I am going with the 1 fighter I don’t think stands a opportunity. I think that a fluke KO is the only path to victory for Smith and he actually does not possess the one punch/kick power that it might take to pull off. I would be amazed if Smith pulled off the upset this week and when I was making 20 or less lineups, then he’d be an easy fade.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I’m 58-37 for +177.62un (+$17,762) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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